Mr. Minister of Economy and Labour
Mr. Mayor,
Mr. President Messe Berlin
Please, ladies and gentlemen.
It is a singular paradox that the ITB – this great fair dedicated to tourism, an activity that is the synonym of peace – is opening at a time when the world is preparing to go to war! Is it really possible to imagine travel, leisure, and holidays when the world is preparing for war?
This antinomy however is illusory. It is at times of difficulty, when images and sounds of destruction and hatred swirl around us, that we are most compelled to run away.
Since two years ago, we’ve been grappling with this contradiction.
Since September 11, we are experiencing the most severe crisis in world tourism history. Djerba, Bali, Mombassa… the attacks have come one after another, targeting foreign visitors who have become innocent victims of conflicts with which they have nothing to do.
In spite of this, tourism did not collapse as some predicted. Despite the tragedy of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, and the economic recession that began even before those attacks, in 2001 the number of international tourists fell by only 0.5 per cent. Domestic tourism, however, increased across the board, with people choosing to travel to places closer to home.
Tourism managed to reverse the trend in 2002, despite the economy still being in a slump. In 2002, tourism experienced a positive growth of 3 percent with 715 millions international arrivals. This recovery, although it will be less spectacular once the revenue figures are known, demonstrates yet again our industry’s resilience.
The Americas had a difficult year in 2002. However, the Asia-Pacific region grew at an impressive rate of 8 percent. Middle East was the biggest surprise: despite the many tensions that exist in the region, international arrivals increased by 11 percent, largely due to intraregional traffic. Europe held its ground with a 2,4% increase in flow.
The performance of this sector in the last few weeks confirms what I stated here in Berlin, last year: Our confidence is based on customer behaviour. Travel, for either business or pleasure, is too deeply embedded in our society to be easily emasculated. Despite all of the perceived risks and obstacles, consumers will still try to make travel happen, even if that means cutting back on their expenses, changing their destinations, delaying their trip, or shortening their time.
The exceptional stability of the demand allows for the sector to be able to cope with higher prices on supply, which are a result of higher energy, insurance and security costs.
Please, ladies and gentlemen.
We can recall many cases where the growth rate before the crisis was quickly restored after a severe shock caused by regional or global crises. For the current situation, the Gulf War is the most relevant reference. At that time, the tourism industry did not experience a recession. In 1991, growth slowed to just 1.2 percent but never went negative. In 1992, the industry experienced a staggering 8.3 per cent increase.
This fair will open at a time that we are at the lowest point in the curve. Tourists and tourism enterprises alike are hesitant to make decisions due to uncertainty. The Iraqi conflict has already had a negative effect on our industry, even before it began. It fuels fear, creates a wait and see attitude, discourages bookings, delays investment plans, and causes a general feeling of uncertainty. It is inevitable that the situation will clear up in some way. I am sure that no one here wants to witness a situation like this if it leads to the worst outcome possible for our industry: war. Everyone knows that war and tourism are incompatible.
It’s like fire and water: nothing good can happen when they mix. We’d like to think that the people who have the future in their hand will make rational decisions and will consider, among other things, the effects of their choices on vital sectors of world economy, such as transportation and tourism.
If war should break out, then we can only wish that it would be as short as possible and as limited in geography as well. Let us not forget that there are at least two compelling reasons to be optimistic and hopeful.
In the history of tourism, there have never been deep recessions. The tourism industry has always recovered quickly. The tourism industry has not been particularly weak in these tough times. In fact, tourism is an important factor in promoting stability and a recovery. The German economy is no exception.
Second, the tourism industry always emerges from crises much stronger than when it entered them. This is evident in the 1997-1998 economic and financial crisis that hit Asia-Pacific and Russia. These destinations emerged from the recession more stable and on a path to sustainable development. It is clear that this is happening. This adjustment period is accelerating consumer behavior and changing the fabric of industries. New operators have appeared, particularly in the air transport sector, and others have disappeared. This has resulted in restructuring and regrouping as well as the introduction of new technologies and marketing techniques.
The World Tourism Organization invites you to look at the situation in one year’s time, at the ITB 2004, where we shall surely see a tourism industry – both Germany’s and the world’s – that is stronger, more certain of its economic foundations and more confident about its future.
Thank you.
